These days only lazy people don’t write about ChatGPT and large language models (LLM). Vendors are trying to be the first to announce a ChatGPT integration even when they don’t have anything serious to show. I’ve also written about it: see “ChatGPT Producing Simple Decision Models” and “LLM and Decision Modeling“. This weekend I decided to help ChatGPT (that is now at GPT-4) to address the Challenge “Permit Eligibility” published by DMCommunity.org. It has a simple rule: “An applicant is eligible for a resident permit if the applicant has lived at an address while married and in that time period, they have shared the same address at least 7 of the last 10 years.” But this rule contains several tricky assumptions – no wonder, DM vendors are not in a hurry to submit a solution.Continue reading
We Know More Than We Can Tell
Living through the ChatGPT boom, it is interesting to read this article “Is ChatGPT Aware?“:
“Polanyi’s paradox, named in honor of the philosopher and polymath Michael Polanyi, states that “we know more than we can tell.” He means that most of our knowledge is tacit and cannot be easily formalized with words. In The Tacit Dimension, Polanyi gives the example of recognizing a face without being able to tell what facial features humans use to make such a distinction.“
It brings back some of my related thoughts on “Business Rules and Tacit Knowledge” from 7 years ago. It described how “Human Learning” and “Decision Modeling” were moving in opposite directions. Will we see a change?
LLM and Decision Modeling
ChatGPT has the public excited, but the experts are reserved in their praise. Thinking about a practical application of the Large Language Models (LLM) to decision modeling this quote from LeCun caught my attention:
When we create practical decision models we usually deal with an even more limited “universe”. A decision model “manipulates the state of the decision variables” within a very specific business domain (insurance, loan origination, claims, medical guidelines, etc.) complemented by generic concepts well covered by such relatively small standards as DMN and SBVR. Decision modeling universe is really “limited, discrete, deterministic, and fully observable”.
So, being cautious about the current ChatGPT’s hype, we may be more optimistic about the next breakthrough in Decision Modeling. I suspect the answers of experts to my DecisionCAMP-2022 question “Are our Rule Engines Smart Enough?” would be different today.
ChatGPT Producing Simple Decision Models
I asked ChatGPT to generate a decision model for a simple Vacation Days problem. Here are two results:Continue reading